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翻訳と辞書　辞書検索 [ 開発暫定版 ] スポンサード リンク Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections ： ウィキペディア英語版 Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections The Gallup Organization was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for U.S. Presidential elections.〔"poll" in ('The Columbia Encyclopedia, 6th ed.' ) New York: Columbia University Press, 2012. . Retrieved September 24, 2012. 〕 Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. Presidential elections and the margin of victory for the election winner. However, there were some close elections that it missed, such as 1948, 1976, 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely voter numbers in 2012. The Month section in the tables represents the month that the opinion poll was conducted in. D stands for the United States Democratic Party, while R stands for the United States Republican Party. There were also some third parties included in some of these polls, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party. ==United States presidential election, 1936== The Literary Digest famously predicted that Alf Landon would win based on mail in card from their readers. It had successfully predicted the winners of the elections in 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932, so many people believed their forecasts. George Gallup predicted very different results based on statistical random sampling. The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts was a very visible demonstration of the value of modern statistical methods. The people who mailed in cards to the Literary Digest were more affluent with an overwhelmingly negative evaluation of Roosevelt. They were not representative of the voting public, and it showed in the results. Incumbent President Roosevelt won because his New Deal programs were very popular among the American people, apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll. The Republican nominee Alf Landon claimed that the new deal was too costly and ineffective, as well as that FDR was slowly making the U.S. a dictatorship. However, these attacks did not gain much traction. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク 翻訳と辞書 : 翻訳のためのインターネットリソース Copyright(C) kotoba.ne.jp 1997-2016. All Rights Reserved.